Blackjack Odds and Probabilities

How often you win, how often the dealer busts with each card, what every hand is worth and how likely you are to bust: blackjack's numbers in one place, calculated exactly for real casino rules.

Odds of Winning a Hand

42%of hands win, about 8% push and 49% lose, playing perfect basic strategy.

You lose more hands than you win, yet blackjack is one of the best bets in the casino. That is because a blackjack pays 3 to 2 (you get one about every 21 hands, 4.8% of the time) and because doubling and splitting put more money on the table exactly when you are the favourite. Added up, a basic strategy player loses only around half a percent of what they bet. These figures are from a simulation of 1,000,000 rounds on our American table: 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, double on any two cards, double after split allowed, late surrender.

Dealer Bust Odds and Final Totals by Up-Card

The dealer has no choices: they draw to 17 and hit soft 17 here. So the up-card decides how the dealer's hand is likely to end (after checking for blackjack):

How the dealer's hand ends, by up-card
Dealer ends on	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
17	13%	13%	12%	12%	11%	37%	13%	12%	12%	8%
18	14%	13%	13%	12%	11%	14%	36%	12%	12%	21%
19	13%	13%	12%	12%	11%	8%	13%	35%	12%	21%
20	13%	12%	12%	11%	11%	8%	7%	12%	37%	21%
21	12%	12%	11%	11%	11%	7%	7%	6%	4%	10%
Bust	36%	38%	40%	42%	44%	26%	24%	23%	23%	20%

With a 2 to 6 the dealer busts 36% to 44% of the time, which is why basic strategy stands on stiff hands against those cards. With a 7 or higher the dealer busts only about a quarter of the time or less and usually makes 17 or better, so you have to hit hands up to 16.

Expected Value of Every Hand

The expected value is what a hand is worth on average, per 100 chips bet, when you play it with the best move. +20 means you win 20 chips per 100 bet in the long run; −20 means you lose 20. Your first two cards and the dealer's up-card decide almost everything:

Hard hands: value of the best play per 100 bet
Your hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
5	−13	−9	−6	−2	+2	−12	−19	−27	−31	−32
6	−14	−10	−7	−3	0	−15	−22	−29	−34	−34
7	−11	−8	−4	−1	+3	−7	−21	−29	−32	−35
8	−2	+1	+4	+7	+10	+8	−6	−21	−25	−26
9	+7	+12	+18	+24	+30	+17	+10	−5	−15	−12
10	+36	+41	+46	+51	+56	+39	+29	+14	+3	+3
11	+47	+52	+57	+61	+66	+46	+35	+23	+18	+10
12	−25	−23	−21	−16	−12	−21	−27	−34	−38	−38
13	−29	−25	−21	−16	−12	−27	−32	−39	−43	−43
14	−29	−25	−21	−16	−12	−32	−37	−43	−47	−47
15	−29	−25	−21	−16	−12	−37	−42	−47	−50	−50
16	−29	−25	−21	−16	−12	−41	−46	−50	−50	−50
17	−16	−12	−8	−5	−1	−11	−38	−42	−42	−50
18	+11	+14	+17	+19	+22	+40	+11	−18	−18	−23
19	+38	+40	+42	+44	+45	+62	+59	+29	+6	+19
20	+64	+65	+66	+67	+68	+77	+79	+76	+55	+60

Soft hands: value of the best play per 100 bet
Your hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
A,2	+5	+7	+10	+13	+20	+12	+5	−4	−10	−10
A,3	+2	+5	+8	+13	+20	+8	+1	−8	−14	−13
A,4	0	+3	+6	+13	+20	+4	−3	−11	−17	−17
A,5	−2	+1	+6	+13	+20	0	−7	−15	−21	−20
A,6	0	+5	+12	+18	+25	+5	−7	−15	−20	−22
A,7	+11	+17	+23	+29	+36	+40	+11	−10	−14	−16
A,8	+38	+40	+42	+44	+46	+62	+59	+29	+6	+19
A,9	+64	+65	+66	+67	+68	+77	+79	+76	+55	+60

Pairs: value of the best play per 100 bet
Your pair	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
A,A	+47	+52	+57	+61	+66	+46	+35	+23	+18	+10
2,2	−9	−3	+5	+13	+22	−1	−16	−24	−29	−29
3,3	−13	−6	+2	+10	+20	−7	−22	−29	−34	−34
4,4	−2	+1	+4	+8	+18	+8	−6	−21	−25	−26
5,5	+36	+41	+46	+51	+56	+39	+29	+14	+3	+3
6,6	−21	−13	−4	+5	+14	−21	−27	−34	−38	−38
7,7	−16	−7	+1	+10	+19	−9	−37	−43	−47	−47
8,8	+1	+8	+15	+23	+30	+21	−9	−41	−49	−50
9,9	+18	+24	+30	+36	+43	+40	+22	−9	−18	−23
10,10	+64	+65	+66	+67	+68	+77	+79	+76	+55	+60

A 20 against a dealer 7 or 8 is the most valuable hand after a blackjack, worth almost 80 chips per 100 bet. The best hand to double is 11 against a 6 (+66). At the other end, 15 and 16 against a 9, 10 or Ace lose half your bet even with the best play, surrender. To see the value of every option for a hand, not just the best one, use the blackjack calculator.

Your Chance of Busting When You Hit

Chance the next card busts you, by hard total
Your total	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Bust	31%	38%	46%	54%	62%	69%	77%	85%	92%

Busting is less likely than it feels: with 12 only a ten-value card busts you (31%). The risk is what the dealer's card weighs it against — see when to hit or stand, and why never-bust play costs far more than it saves.

Blackjack Odds FAQ

What are the odds of winning a hand of blackjack?

Playing basic strategy you win about 42% of hands, push about 8% and lose about 49%. You still lose only around half a percent of what you bet, because you are paid 3 to 2 on blackjacks and win more money on doubles and splits.

What are the odds of getting a blackjack?

About 4.8%, or roughly one hand in 21: an Ace together with any of the sixteen ten-value cards in the first two cards.

Which dealer card is the worst for the dealer?

A 6, then a 5: the dealer busts over 40% of the time with either. With a 7 or higher the dealer busts only about a quarter of the time or less, and with an Ace the least often.

What is the house edge in blackjack?

With basic strategy at good rules (3:2 blackjack, six decks, late surrender) it is around 0.5% to 0.7%. Paying 6:5 for blackjack adds about 1.4%, and playing by feel usually costs two to four times the house edge.

Does the chance of busting depend on the dealer card?

Your chance of busting when you hit depends only on your total: about 31% on hard 12, 46% on 14 and 62% on 16. The dealer's card decides whether that risk is worth taking.